Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.015628 0.017729 0.020015 0.022688 0.025729 0.029084 0.033069
2025-03-23 0.012570 0.015512 0.018998 0.023437 0.028950 0.035586 0.044197
2025-03-30 0.010293 0.013442 0.017392 0.022723 0.029751 0.038725 0.051101
2025-04-06 0.008846 0.012097 0.016371 0.022418 0.030788 0.042012 0.058287
2025-04-13 0.007565 0.010761 0.015135 0.021582 0.030888 0.043904 0.063616
2025-04-20 0.007013 0.010340 0.015061 0.022283 0.033115 0.048861 0.073679
2025-04-27 0.006513 0.009920 0.014919 0.022829 0.035115 0.053619 0.083870
2025-05-04 0.006121 0.009610 0.014887 0.023504 0.037333 0.058857 0.095271
2025-05-11 0.005582 0.009010 0.014343 0.023307 0.038133 0.061920 0.103458
2025-05-18 0.005162 0.008552 0.013969 0.023325 0.039250 0.065548 0.112874
2025-05-25 0.004722 0.008017 0.013415 0.022983 0.039710 0.068093 0.120644
2025-06-01 0.004458 0.007750 0.013275 0.023316 0.041333 0.072724 0.132474
2025-06-08 0.004105 0.007305 0.012805 0.023051 0.041916 0.075658 0.141675
2025-06-15 0.003939 0.007176 0.012875 0.023755 0.044315 0.082072 0.158022
2025-06-22 0.003578 0.006659 0.012204 0.023035 0.043993 0.083425 0.164796
2025-06-29 0.003313 0.006295 0.011778 0.022725 0.044406 0.086176 0.174545
2025-07-06 0.003004 0.005821 0.011105 0.021877 0.043684 0.086645 0.179707
2025-07-13 0.002916 0.005766 0.011222 0.022587 0.046122 0.093570 0.198899
2025-07-20 0.002815 0.005675 0.011261 0.023141 0.048284 0.100121 0.217954
2025-07-27 0.002735 0.005618 0.011362 0.023826 0.050776 0.107572 0.239718
2025-08-03 0.002568 0.005371 0.011054 0.023626 0.051358 0.111016 0.252889
2025-08-10 0.002436 0.005185 0.010858 0.023645 0.052414 0.115571 0.269042
2025-08-17 0.002281 0.004935 0.010509 0.023298 0.052621 0.118258 0.281096